European Climatic Energy Mixes
European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) is a Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) activity which is developing, in close collaboration with the energy sector, a proof-of-concept model – or demonstrator. The purpose of the C3S ECEM Demonstrator is to enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess how well energy supply will meet demand in Europe over different time horizons, focusing on the role climate has on energy supply and demand.
The energy sector is undergoing a major transformation. The established model of traditional thermal power plants providing most of the ‘firm’ power to match a variable demand is being challenged by the steadily increasing share of power supply from variable renewable energy (RE) sources, such as wind and solar. Demand variability is also increasing as a result of the widespread use of embedded small-scale generation (e.g., rooftop solar) and air-conditioning, and can further change in response to price signals, and to an ever-changing climate. At the same time, the cost of batteries has started to noticeably decrease, making electrical storage increasingly economically viable.
Energy companies and operators, such as TSOs, and energy policy makers will benefit from the co-designed climate service demonstrator as it will include a set of tools for better assessing energy mix options over Europe. Importantly, the demonstrator will:
- Ensure that the country energy mixes properly reflect climate conditions including their variability, and it will therefore allow end-users to better assess the optimal supply mix that can meet demand in the most cost effective manner;
- Offer a coherent approach for the climate variables/indicators used in power demand/supply balance, an added value with respect to current practice in the sector, where climate data and derived ESCIIs are not always physically homogeneous and/or in balance
This transformation in the energy sector is taking place against a variable and changing climate. Given the weather-and climate-dependency of both RE and demand (even in the case of large storage uptake), it is important to develop this robust climate-based tool to advise energy planners and policy makers.