The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Integrated Risk Assessment (SECLI-FIRM)

Overview of the SECLI-FIRM project

The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Integrated Risk Assessment (SECLI-FIRM) is a EU H2020 project will run for 42 months (February 2018 – July 2021) and aims to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes in both the energy and water sectors. The project will promote research advances in the most effective seasonal forecasts for specific applications, as well as the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry, expanding the climate services market.

SECLI-FIRM will provide accurate information to aid the implementation of relevant decisions to all levels of energy management. Meteorological variables have a significant impact upon many segments of industry, including the power price through renewable productions (solar, wind and hydro) and power demand, and on gas demand (especially in winter).

Energy organisations, both involved in the project and not, will benefit from seasonal climate forecasts. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance in the energy sector, and therefore to a more efficient energy system. This will be particularly useful in the renewable energy sector and with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.

The project objectives are:

• To characterise the end-user requirements and associated decision-making uses for a wide range of stakeholders, using case studies to identify the climate-dependent factors relevant to management decisions.
• To optimise climate prediction performance and overcome identified limitations in forecast skill and to maximise reliability, usefulness and potential economic value to stakeholders by developing a multi-model seasonal prediction dataset.
• To quantify the value-add of climate forecast to decision-making, using case studies to evaluate the benefits of the optimised seasonal products.

View the Project Poster for more information.

Case Studies

Case Study 1: Heat waves in southern Europe and energy generation

Case Study 2: Dry winters in northern Italy and energy generation

Case Study 3: Wind strength variability in Italy and energy generation

Case Study 4: High/low winds in Spain and energy generation

Case Study 5: Strong El Niños and energy mix planning

Case Study 6: North Sea wind and wave impact on maintenance planning and logistics

Case Study 7: Energy logistics: wind and wave conditions

Case Study 8: Winter weather and energy system balancing

Case Study 9: Water management to identify periods of stress to the supply-demand balance

Videos

Case Study 1: Watch Now

Case Study 2: Watch Now

Case Study 7: Watch Now

Webinar #1

Wednesday 15th January 2020

11am – 12pm UTC

This first in a new series of FREE webinars introduced the overall SECLI-FIRM project objectives and presented some results from the case studies which form the building blocks of the project. An emphasis was also placed on the interaction with stakeholders and the framework for assessing the value of seasonal forecasts.

For more information, view the flyer below or watch the webinar recording: